The Dream is on

On 28th June, what thousands of fans were hoping for and for months and they finally got it. They worked hard, protested an unfair decision and finally the mighty colonial style ICC heard them and in a rare way overturned its decision of a 10 nation 2015 World Cup to a 14 nation World Cup.

This opens up the hopes of millions of people in Ireland, Kenya, Afghanistan, Netherlands, Nepal and many other nations. There is now a clear cut path defined for them to have a chance to reach the cricket's biggest spectacle. 

However all was not good news. The 2019 WC will be reduced to a 10 nation World Cup with ODI ranking used for top 8 teams to directly qualify while spots will be done through qualifier. How ICC has predicted that 8 years from now cricket still have 8 good teams or have only 10 test teams.

Then in another classic ICC style reversal the 2012 and 2014 World T20 was reduced from 16 to 12. The ICC had earlier defined this format as the driver to expand cricket in new markets and the qualification tournament for 2012 World T20 has already started!!!! But this is ICC.

Most of the fans were happy that the associates are back as they don't want the likes of Ireland to miss the world cup. Ireland surely are favorite of many people now. But the fans are not happy with 14 teams. According to them it is 2 teams too many. Also fans are also not happy that all 10 test nations are guaranteed and automatic entry. Fans clearly wanted only the top 8 teams to qualify and the likes of Bangladesh and Zimbabwe to come through a qualification tournament.

To sum up most fans would have been happy with a 12 team WC with 8 direct entries and bottom 2 test nations playing a qualifying tournament with top 6 associates to fill the final 4 spots. I agree with this format but for me the 16 teams 4 pool and followed by QF, SF and Finals. Simple short and involves many teams.

The race begins for many fans across the world to have their teams in the 2015 World Cup. My personal wish list is Ireland, Kenya, Nepal and Afghanistan.

Can Dubai Sharjah host an IPL style league

If a country decides to host an IPL style league then what does it need. First it needs that the local population have interest. Then it needs that it have local infrastructure. An local economy and people willing to invest is so so important. Finally most important the stars in the league required to add glitter and glimmer to league: Both cricketing and other stars.

So what does UAE not have. What did Sharjah not have. In old days it was a front runner on the Glitter and Glimmer. Then the stadiums in Dubai surely are world class. The local population of UAE consists of 75% South Asian population which is cricket crazy. Then finally local economy is one of the key ones in the world and oil money is surplus. Surely it has all the attributes key for a success of an IPL style league (Unless I have missed any point)

So what are the constraints. First of all is the power of BCCI that will not release it stars for such a tournament. Sad but true. To break it we will have have too see the times in FTP when Indian stars and most important local stars(They will be key) will be free. Then the BCCI should be contracted and their objections should be listed and system should be made to overcome this. For all practical reasons this means that business interest of many people in BCCI needs to be addressed. Eg Mr Srinivasan the owner of CSK and BCCI head, if he gets money out of it then BCCI is for it. Such issues not officially spelt out are important for the league.

Then second comes infrastructure. Does UAE have infrastructure. Lets have a look

1. Al-Jazira Stadium, Abu Dhabi
2. Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
3. Dubai Cricket Council Ground No. 1, Dubai
4. Dubai Cricket Council Ground No. 2, Dubai
5. DSC Cricket Stadium, Dubai
6. ICC Cricket Academy Ground No. 1, Dubai
7. ICC Cricket Academy Ground No. 2, Dubai
8. Sharjah Cricket Association Stadium, Sharjah

What do you call this infrastructure. I call it wow. Test Nations of Bangladesh and Zimbabwe cannot match it. And 2 more stadiums are coming up at Ajman and Al Ain. Then surely teams can be formed on Home and Away basis as the infra is already there. And the best part is all the distances in the country are not far. You don't need flights to have Home and Away matches. A simple coach can fulfill the same very comfortably.

Then about the interest in local population. To start with when Indian and Paki teams played at Sharjah the stadiums had house full. If I look at the demographics of UAE then around 55% of the population is from South Asia. South Asia and cricket. What is the relation. Man it is just cricket crazy. So the population there. Yes most of them are laborers but a T20 match is just 3 Hrs. Bollywood and Cricket Stars can easily draw them.

Finally does UAE has a local economy. HQ of major companies. Oil money in the economy. A GDP of 253 B$ shows that money is there.

Hence this place has all the things to start an IPL league. The local board just has to ensure 2 things

1. Enroll the business men running in league for the same
2. Get bollywood stars for all the glitter

These 2 things will ensure will take this league to a stage where it will be a super hit

The Innovation that can be used for Domestic IPL Style T20 tournaments

The cricket was established at Test Cricket. It spread to 6 Test Nations and then firmed itself there but not expanding to new territories. Then second thrust came when ODI format came into being and the total Test Nation became as 10. Now a third thrust has come in form of T20 that can be used to take the game to new territories.

T20 brought back crowds in County in England. Then through ICL and IPL it has captured the imagination of India and now cricketers are getting paid at levels of other sports. Other countries are also joining the T20 party with BBL, SLPL HRV T20 and even an East African PL and soon to be formed PPL, BPL, APLand South Africa, West Indies & Zimbabwe revamping their T20 competitions bringing more money, more international cricketers.

But if each and every league runs on same format then it may be a over kill and this brilliant effort may be lost. Hence instead of helping as a third thrust cricket may end back in obscurity. Hence the answer is innovations.

Few innovations have been used in IPL and many have been proposed in BBL. The innovations tried are

IPL

1. Use of music during breaks
2. Cheer leaders used in cricket for first time
3. Orange Cap (Highest Run Getter) and Purple Cap (Highest Wicket Taker)
4. Strategic time out (Good for broadcasters)

BBL

1. Crowds to get the bowl hit during  a sixer (Similar to Baseball)
2. A super over in which runs will be doubled
3. 2 Bouncer in a over
4. Tweak in field restrictions norms to suit the Batsman and hitting  .

These are quite great innovations. Certain more which I could think off may be

1. Designated hitter:- A batsman who will be the 12th player and can be used for batting instead of any weak batsman
2. Super match:- Out of all the league matches team choose 1 match where the points will be doubled. Hence if a win fetched 2 pts a win in chosen super match will give you 4 pts while a loss will give 0 pts
3. Choose a bowler:- For a particular time the bating team can pick a bowler for 1 over. The list of 5 bowlers has to be submitted in advance
4. Hitting Zone:- Runs scored through hitting zone will bring in double runs (like max cricket)
5. Super Fielder:-An additional fielder in an over (If team wants can be coupled with Super over of BBL)
6. LBW Free Over:- One over where there will be no LBW given.

I am not very good in innovations. I would recommend the readers to add more innovations in the comments and I will add them to the list (Giving due respect to the person who has suggested the same). Looking forward for innovations to drive the game :)

Time to have a Test Championship

A Test Championship has been talked about for years. ICC wants to have one so that they can use it to revive the dwindling interest in the Purest form of cricket. If Test Cricket dies it is no doubt cricket will be poorer in quality. The Batting Temperament and bowlers ability to take 20 Wickets would be lost. A Team which would win the Test Championship will be no doubt the best cricket team of the time. T20 and ODI matches can be lost to 1 bad hour but that chance is highly unlikely in Test Cricket. Hence a Test Championship is really essential for cricket.

Having said that having the test championship has various challenges. A Test Match may take 5 days to finish. It may result in a draw. Also there are 10 Test Teams and it may take ages for such a tournament to finish. Then if Test Championship is held in 1 country then neutral test matches will have no crowds. Then to sponsor such tournament will be a challenge. Already there is a busy international schedule and fitting such a long tournament will be virtually impossible.

A 10 team Test Championship as seen would be very difficult to conduct and not sustainable. To make the Test Championship the no of slots should be such that the teams need to fight it out. As we have seen some teams clearly are behind the others the number is clearly less than 10.
The Test Cricket should have no compromise on quality and if I try to classify the present teams then Good Teams would be:- Ind, Aus, SA, Eng and Maybe SL. Average Teams would be Pak, NZ and NZ and BD and Zim as the bad teams. The no of Teams can vary between 4 to 8 and I would like to have just 4 slots so that no team is just guaranteed to qualify unless a shock happens. 4 teams also would mean that scheduling of the tournament would be easy and tournament is not extended.

Also presently there are various Test Series played by various Test nations. Over 6 year cycle each country is supposed to play a Test with all other 9 test nations. This has resulted in various meaningless series like BD touring Aus or SA V WI series where BD and WI just got thrashing and crowd interest was minimal.

The Test Championship can be a perfect answer and give a solution to many problems. Over 4 year all the teams should be mandated to play at least 3 test against all test nations. Then Test would contribute to points on the points table and the Top 4 teams would qualify for WORLD TEST CHAMPIONSHIP

Also to add more excitement and meritocracy to the Cricket Setup the team which comes last would be relegated to Tier 2 or present set up of Intercontinental Cup. The team which comes 9th in the pool would play a 3 test match series against the team which comes second in Tier 2 or Intercontinental Cup.

For the knowledge of the readers Intercontinental Cup is a 4 day match, First Class tournament for the top associates. The present IC Cup starts on 29th June, 2011 with Ireland, Netherlands, Scotland, Afghanistan, UAE, Kenya, Namibia and Canada playing in it.

Like if Zim come 9th and BD 10th in main table and Ireland win IC Cup and Kenya come second then Ireland get promoted as Test Nation for next 4 years and BD loose Test Status and then Zim and Ken play a 3 test match series. The excitement created can also help create excitement for Test Cricket in new nations.

This system would mean that even a Aus V BD can be exciting in some sense. The case may be if that Aus do not win 3-0 they do not come in top 4 and miss on qualification to World Test Championship while BD need to draw a Test i.e worse case of 2-0 to come 9th and avoid direct relegation. Even this test series would create excitement with Aus going all guns to win 3-0 while BD fighting to secure a draw. The draw will be a win for them. This would be better than present scenario where a draw would mean a draw.

But then comes another challenge:- Aus plays Ashes every 2 years with England and that is of 5 Test. We cannot simply change a tradition and then out of 10 tests cannot say we will pick these 3 test and rest 7 are for your series. Also Aus will play SA, Eng more often then a SL or BD.

We should have fixed max no of points that Aus can gain from playing tests against England. Over period of 4 years all Aus V Eng tests will contribute to a max of 20 points. Similarly other 8 test teams also Aus can earn a max of 20 pts whether they play 10 Tests or 3 Tests. This means a team can earn a max of 180 Points (Like in ODI world in a group at team could earn 12 points).

Then dividing the 20 points should be based on each and every test. This would make each test equally important. Here we look to a the point system now used by Test nations rather towards the Associates!!!! We use the point system used in Intercontinental Cup to divide the 20 points.

• Win – 14 points
• Draw if more than 10 hours of play lost – 7 points (otherwise 3 points)
• First Innings leader – 6 points (independent of final result)
• Abandoned without a ball played – 10 points  

To take the example of how points will be divided I take the example of Aus V Eng Ashes (5 Tests) and Aus V Ind Test Series (2 Tests).

ASHES

1st Test
Eng:- 260/10
Aus:-481/10
Eng:-517/1
Aus:-107/1
Match Drawn
Eng:- 3 Pts, Aus:- 9 Pts

2nd Test
Aus:- 245/10
Eng:- 620/5 Dec
Aus:- 304/10
Eng won by Innings and 70 Runs
Eng:- 20 Pts, Aus:- 0 Pts

3rd Test
Aus:- 268/10
Eng:- 187/10
Aus:- 309/10
Eng:- 123/10
Aus won by 267 Runs
Eng:- 0 Pts, Aus:- 20 Pts

4th Test
Aus:- 98/10
Eng:- 513/10
Aus:- 258/10
Eng Won by innings and 157 Runs
Eng:- 20 Pts, Aus:- 0 Pts

5th Test
Aus:- 280/10
Eng:- 644/10
Aus:- 281/10
Eng won by innings and 83 runs
Eng:- 20 Pts, Aus:- 0 Pts

In the end of the series Eng:- 63 Pts, Aus:- 29 Pts. Since the max point any team can gain is 20 points hence these points would be divided in the same ratio. Hence Eng:- 13.70 Pts and Aus:- 6.30 Pts.

If we take the previous tour of Aus to India
1st Test
Aus:- 428/10
Ind:- 405/10
Aus:- 192/10
Ind:- 216/9
India won by 1 wicket
Aus:- 6 Pts, India:- 14 Pts

2nd Test
Aus:- 478/10
Ind:- 495/10
Aus:- 223
Ind;- 207/3
India won by 7 wickets
Aus:- 0 Pts, India:- 20 Pts

At the end of the series Aus:- 6 Pts, Ind:- 34 Pts. To be honest 3 tests rather than 2 would give a more fair result. At the end of the series the main Table points would Aus:- 3 Pts, India 17 Pts. 

In a similar way all the points will be added to the main table. To keep the interest in test a Win fetches much higher points than a lame draw. Also to have a good test match a innings lead also contributes to a point. If Aus V Eng play another 5 tests then the points from all 10 tests will be divided between the 2 teams. Suppose in next ashes Eng again win 4-0 and take 89 Pts while Aus just have 3 pts, then the total points are  Eng (63+89)= 152 Pts, Aus:- (29+3)=32 Pts, then the 20 points would be divided as Eng:- 16.52 Pts, Aus:- 3.48 Pts.

At the end of 4 years the top 4 teams qualify for World Test Championship while 10th placed team is relegated for 4 years and 9th plays a playoff with second associate to fight a Test Spot for next 4 years.

Finally the World Test Champioship
Like any other major sports tournament the WTC should also be arranged to generate cash revenues for ICC.
The tournament will be a simple round robin league followed by 3 test final series. To ensure a fair system the matches for team should have both home and away matches. Since each team plays 3 test matches, it would be either 2 home and 1 away or 1 home and 2 away. Based on Random lots 2 Teams will get 2 Home test matches and 2 teams will just have 1 Home Test Matches.
The final should be 1 home, 1 away and 1 pre decided Neutral Venue. The teams would be allowed to make any number of changes in the squad for each test so that we have a good competition.

For Eg if India, SA, Eng and Aus qualify for the WTC and Eng and Aus get 2 home test while Ind and SA get 1 test. Hence based on random lots say the schedule comes like this
Aus V Eng (Lords)
Aus V Ind (Perth)
Aus V SA (Sydney)
Eng V India (Mumbai)
Eng V SA (Oval)
Ind V SA (Cape Town)

Then at the end of the series say Ind and SA top the table, then the finals would be
1st Final:- Ind V SA (Lords)
2nd Final:- Ind V SA (Eden Garden)
3rd Final:- Ind V SA (Durban), if required

This way all 4 nations get a part of the Test Matches and we can expect full houses at all the places. The finals are also so placed that all 3 places can also expect full houses. This will definitely be a great way of determining the Best Test Team rather Best Cricket Team in a fair way and very appealing to the broadcasters along with spectators and fans. The league of the tournament can be finished in around 25 days with 2 parallel or partial overlap test and finals in another 25 days, hence a total of 50 days to fun.

How much can IPL style leagues fetch in other Countries

Ever wondered that what would be the worth of IPL style league if formed in other nations. Can they offer IPL style salaries or can they fill in the coffers on the hosting nations like it has done for BCCI. Can any other country rival the IPL.

To start with the first question that comes into mind is what all could be the factors that will decide the value of a franchise in any country. If tomorrow Afghanistan wants to go for a APL or Pakistan wants to go for PPL, how can I sitting here estimate the value each franchise will fetch.

I tried to work on the same and create some sort of approximate model. A model which if gives me value with a 10% error would be great. For my reference I have the IPL where 10 Franchise gave BCCI 1400M$ for 10 years. Which means 140 M$/Year for BCCI and also 140 M$/Franchise for 10 years (14 M$/Year/Franchise).

The factors I could think of are

1. Interest Factor (Squarely Proportional)
2. Population
3. Per Capita Income
4. Poverty Level (Non Poor Squarely Proportional)
5.  Security Factor
6. Infrastructure (Squarely Proportional)
7. No of Teams ( Inversely Squarely Proportional)

Based on these factor and using IPL, I found out a constant. The same constant and the formula can be used for finding value of other IPL style leagues

Before going into some exciting results some explanations on some factors
1. Interest Factor:- It is very difficult to define. The factors I have used are based on guesstimate where the no of cricket article to total no of sports article is one Indicator. Another indicator is the level of attendance witnessed in the International matches.
Based on these factors the interest factors used are (Ind:- 2.5, Pak, BD & SL:- 3, Aus:- 1, Eng:- 0.9, Ken + Uga:- 0.8 (For East Africa PL), NZ:- 1, Zim & SA:- 1.5, WI:- 2, Canada:- 0.4, USA:- 0.1)
Many of you can challenge these factors. Perhaps a well traveled person can give the real picture. If people want to challenge this figure kindly do that and write in comments. I can definitely improve on these.
In my opinion Interest Factor has a square effect. means if A has 1 and B has 2, the effect on money would be 4 times for B)

2 & 3 Population and Per Capita Income:- No need to explain. This helps in giving the size of total market

4. Poverty Level:- While defining poverty level may have differences from country to country but this is a important factor. If some percentage of population if simply work to have food they cannot be expected to watch cricket or be a target market.
In my opinion, if the percentage poor are more in the country that would mean that non poor people who form a potential market would be even more less. The factor would again be squarely proportional.
This means a country with 20% Poor (80% Non Poor) the target market would not be 80% but rather 0.8 X 0.8= 0.64 or 64% Population would be available as market. So a country with 40% Non Poor (Half the previous case, 60% Poverty) then just 16% population will be the market. Hence though the non poor dropped to half, the potential market dropped to a fourth

5. Security Factor:- If you have war in a country, then not much would be fetched for franchise. Hence this is also a very important factors. This is again a guesstimate based on present cricket scene, crime rate and terrorism etc. The factor would be between 0 & 1 meaning 0 if worst case and 1 is the best
The number worked for various countries are (Ind:- 0.8, BD:- 0.7, SL:- 0.8, Pak:- 0.3, Aus, Eng & NZ:- 1.0, Zim :- 0.5, WI:- 0.9, SA:- 0.8, East Africa:- 0.7, USA & Can:- 1, Mal:- 0.9)

6. Infrastructure:- Again a very very important factor. I clearly defined the terms for it. Stadiums can be in a country Good, Average or Bad. The tournament can be held in 3 ways:- Home and Away, Partial Home and Away, One or Limited Stadiums. Based on these factor Home & Away+Good is 1, H&A+Average is 0.9 and so on. In the end we reach the worst case One Stadium+Bad is 0.2. If the tournament is not even in a stadium and a ground is used then Well!!!=0.1
It means even if we use one excellent stadium for all matches we are at a bad state as compared to if we go for Home and Away model in bad stadiums also. The reason is obvious, in one stadium how many matches can we expect the local population to go for. Also how will they decide which team to support. In home and away there are clear areas for home team and local support.

7. Number of Teams:- How can number of teams have any effect. Well ever heard of law of diminishing returns. According to it if we keep adding more units (teams or franchise's) the contribution of each team would be lesser than the previous one. I take the case of inversely squarely proportional.

Based on the above factors and getting data for all the points I tried to analyze the value of IPL style league in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia, England, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Zimbabwe and non test potential markets of East Africa, USA, Canada & Malaysia. The factors assumed have been mentioned above. The rest can be found using internet. One factor Infrastructure I would be mentioning against each case. Lets see if any place can match IPL

INDIA
Remember BCCI for 1400 M$ from 10 Franchise for 10 years. IPL is based on Home and Away model with good stadiums hence 1 factor for Infra

BANGLADESH
With a huge population and huge interest for cricket, Bangladesh surely looks like a lucrative market. The local league they started NCL T20 had 6 teams but was held in 1 stadium.
Bangladesh does not have the infrastructure for Home and Away model as  all 6 cities do not have stadiums and also airports, hence giving it a Infra factor of 0.4 (One or Limited stadium + Good Stadium =0.4)
Based on these factors each franchise would fetch 2.9 M$ hence meaning 17.4 M$ for BCB. Hence this is any way can never rival BCCI

SRI LANKA
They can go for a Partial Home & Away model, but this time SLPL went for One Stadium. Again the same Infra factor of 0.4 and 7 teams, each franchise will fetch 2.6 M$. This would mean 18.2 M$ or 1.82 M$ for each year. Incidently as part of SLPL, SLC is getting 1.75 M$ / year. I was actually very happy to see such close results for my calculations.

Similarly working on same factors the summary is as follows

1. India:- 10 teams, 140 M$/Franchise, 1400 M$ (Infra Factor(IF)= 1.0, H&A model)
2. Bangladesh:- 6 teams, 2.9 M$/Fr, 17.4 M$ (One stadium, IF=0.4)
3. Sri Lanka:- 7 teams, 2.6 M$/Fr, 18.2 M$ (One stadium, IF=0.4)
4. Pakistan:- 8 teams, 10.9 M$/Fr, 87.2 M$ (H&A Model with average stadia, IF=0.9)
5. Australia:- 8 teams, 74.1 M$/Fr, 592.8 M$ (H&A Model, IF= 1.0)
6. England:- 18 Counties, 16.2 M$/Fr, 292.6 M$ (H&A Model, IF=1.0)
7. New Zealand:- 6 teams, 14.0 M$/Fr, 84.0 M$ (H&A Model, IF=1.0)
8. South Africa:- 6 teams, 17.6 M$/Fr, 105 M$ (H&A Model, IF=1.0)
9. West Indies:- 6 teams, 9.7 M$/Fr, 58.2 M$, (H&A Model, IF=0.9)
10. Zimbabwe:- 5 teams, 0.2 M$/Fr, 1.0 M$, (H&A Model, IF=0.8)
11. Canada:- 5 teams, 5.6 M$/Fr, 28.0 M$ (One stadium, good, IF=0.4)
12. USA:- 6 teams, 4.3 M$/Fr, 25.8 M$ (Partial H&A eg East Coast, IF=0.6)
13. East Africa:- 6 teams, 0.73 M$/Fr, 4.38 M$ (H&A Model, IF=0.8)
14. Malaysia:- 6 teams, 0.5 M$/Fr, 3.2 M$ (Partial H&A Model, IF=0.6)

Hence we see that the big bash comes closer to IPL roughly coming to 40% of size of IPL. ECB in present form of county cannot match. If they can reduce the number of teams to say 8 teams then they can get more than 650 M$ from their T20 tournament reaching 45% of IPL and then both Bigh Bash and ECB T20 would be in a position to take on IPL
About the others, not many can even come closer to IPL. If interest level is raised in USA and Canada, they can be much bigger markets than IPL too!!!!
Presently Pakistan has a serious issue on Security and factor of just 0.3 (0.8 of India). If they are able to improve the situation (Say Factor of 0.7) then instead of 10.9 M$ they can get 25.4 M$ for each franchise or a total money of 203.2 M$. This means a tournament roughly 15% the size of IPL. Not rivaling IPL but it can be also a good potential market.

The rest presently are small and will take some time to emerge out. Hence the market to look towards the future EPL and La Liga of cricket would be IPL, PPL, Big Bash, EPL T20 and USPL. The SLPL, WIPL, BPL etc would be like K League or MLS. Looking for some exciting times.