Who will win the ICC Twenty20 Qualifiers?

This is a very difficult question and the right answer is really difficult to guess. It is a tournament with too many teams and too little slots to fill. Over that the teams are all really competitive with almost all teams on their day have capability to defeat all other teams. However said that not all teams have an equal chance. Given the squads, exposure of various team I would put the chances as follows

THE FAVORITES
1. IRELAND
They are the most popular associates and clearly the favorites. They have got a great intelligent Captain who makes the most of the resources. The resources definitely are exciting lead by the dangerous Kevin O'Brien famous for his fastest century in the World Cup or the young and Exciting George Dockrell. The team has the talent and it will be tough be tough for most teams to overcome this talent

Can O'Brien repeat the performance. Let's hope so

2. AFGHANISTAN
They are a nation filled with passion for Cricket. Cricket unites this war ravaged country and the cricketers are the national stars. Afghanistan has one of the most potent talents who on their day can take on the mightiest names in Cricket. A fiery pace attack led by Hamid Hassan who can easily made place in most of the test sides or the calm and composed captain Nawroz Mangal, they would be making the most likely finalist with Ireland

He can single handily rip apart any Line Up

3. SCOTLAND
Surprised to hear this name. The Scots have a flourishing team whose average age is 24. The team stayed away from limelight as they missed out for 2011 WC, but in 2011 they have a performance that needs to looked into. They have played 4 ODI's and won 3, 2 against Netherlands and 1 against Ireland. They lost the 1 match to Sri Lanka. This is a team with real power works and taking them lightly is asking for trouble

GOOD BETS
1. NETHERLANDS
Surprised this name is not there in the favorites, well don't be. The biggest name and star is not playing the qualifiers, yes we are talking of ten Doeschate is not playing and hence this clearly puts them off the field of favorites. Having said that the team has still got some good talent and surely have a clear chance to make it to Sri Lanka

Netherlands surely will miss him

2. KENYA
Are you judging them by their performance in 2011 WC, well if the answer is yes, then my recommendation don't be fooled by that.  After the disastrous campaign the management has put all ticks in the preparation for this tournament. Firstly they formed the domestic structure which was important. Then they have given the young players loads of exposure which is very critical. The results have not coming in full swings but surely there are good signs. The visiting Irish team did not have it easy for the Inter Continental Matches.

3. CANADA
The performance surely have dropped after the World Cup with the loss of a great player like Ashish Bagai. They are down but never out. With some exciting players like Harvinder Baidwan, Jimmy Hansra or Manny Aulakh and they on their day can take any other team.

A leader lost?

4. NAMIBIA
When Kenya visited them they smashed them 6-2 in a T20 series. Presently they get to play in the Domestic Series in South Africa, whose experience they surely are relishing and the performance can be seen on the field. They have played in a World Cup once and surely would want to reach the top level again. The Burger's form would be critical for the team

PARTY SPOILERS
Here I would like to put teams who have a bleak chance of making into the World T20 but surely can spoil the party of teams who would be running towards it. The big names have to beware of them

1. PNG
The team is a result of hard work put in at Junior level. PNG have a great youth program with largest number of players involved in any Associate. The team has a great bowling line up. The one area where have opportunity is Batting and with former England Wicket Keeper Batsman Greaint Jones, surely makes them a very very dangerous team.

Will he be the X Factor for PNG

2. HONG KONG
Like PNG and Scotland this is a team made from developing the youth. It is a very young team which were the runners up in the Asian region and gave a very close fight to Afghanistan in the finals. They surely can never be taken lightly at any momemt

3. NEPAL
They have the biggest fan base amongst the Associates, a nation filled with passion for the game of Cricket. They got a new coach who was responsible for transforming Canada and doing all things right to do the same in Nepal. The coach is getting good exposure for the team before hits Dubai. The team is the best at Junior Levels who have defeated the likes of SA, BD, NZ & WI and people are hoping that they will this time transform the performance at senior level

He is a local star. Can he make it in International Stage, an area he desrves

4. UGANDA
If we talk of upcoming teams one thing is common amongst them. Be it  Scotland, PNG, HK, Nepal or Uganda. The development of youth is the key for success. The party spoiling could be seen at the African Division One where they defeated the Party of the better rated Namibia and won the tournament. They also made the right noises when their both Franchise's reached the finals in the EAPL. They have been traditional chokers, but this is the tag they would be hoping to get rid of.

5. BERMUDA
Remember a fat man taking a diving catch. Yes it was Bermuda itself. They have tasted the top level once and surely would be wanting to do that again for the most popular game of the country. The team surely have got great talents like David Hemp. Let's see how they fare in their biggest tournament of the year

6. USA
The nation is the second biggest market for Cricket in the world. There are over 20000 active players in the country. The country has got the mix of experience of India, Pakistan, West Indies, Sri Lanka, Australia and England. The team had once surprised the critics and reached the Champion Trophy. But, a big But the limitation is that the sports is run like a personal fiefdom under Mr Dainty where merit is often ignored. Having said that there are certainly some very talented players who can give a run for money to all the top teams in the tournament

Will US Cricket be luck enough to get rid of this sloppy faced Dictator

THE FILLERS
OMAN is a team formed of all but some expats. The team is aging and in T20 format that is not helpful

DENMARK joined the ranks of Scotland and Netherlands but over time the game somehow lost out. The nation has got some talent but I do not expect much action from them

ITALY is a upcoming team which draws its strength from likes of immigrants or overseas players of Italian origin. They overseas players are it X factor but I do not expect them miraculously reach Sri Lanka. Some wins here and there but not much besides that.


Finally this tournament will be a cracker of the tournament. Let us hope the best team makes it to Sri Lanka

Cricket's lost Bastions-Nations where cricket was popular at one time

Cricket as a sport is limited to few nations. For many year there were no particular efforts to take it to new areas. It was after the 1996 World Cup that ICC has taken some good initiatives to take cricket to new nations. Though they have not been perfect and many shortcomings have been there but there are many success stories to be proud of.

Having said cricket at many stages had many chances where the state the game could have been different. There are many countries where cricket could have been a major game but it missed out. The reasons have been many

1. ICC being formed as Imperial Cricket Conference and shutting itself to countries outside the commonwealth
2. The length of the game was also a limitation as only Test Match was the format
3. Rigid rules of cricket controlled by MCC who under colonial influence wanted to keep the game to gentlemen as per its definition. This literally shut any scope of innovations
4. The local factors in the country
5. The weather limitations

In many countries some or the most factors literally killed the game. The country whose name comes top of the list and if it was there in cricket list then the dynamics of the game would have been much difference- Yes talking about USA

USA

Cricket was once the most popular game in the country. Infact the first international match was played between USA and Canada and it was so popular that in 1800's around 10000 people attended that game. However around the civil war a game very similar to cricket- Rounder & Baseball started to become popular. Baseball was easier to play as it just required a bat and ball and a ground while cricket required a proper pitch.
Also cricket was played by the elite and soon baseball started to emerge as the game of the masses. Cricket had its pockets but then 2 things happened. ICC was formed in 1965 and since US was a non commonwealth nation the game was shut for it. This meant no tours of counties or MCC. Secondly the pockets where Elite played the game soon started to shift towards Golf and Tennis. Hence sadly the game which was very popular soon lost out there.

Now recently with people from South Asia, Caribbean & UK, Aus coming to USA brought the game along with them and game has seen a resurgence. Cricket is a fast growing sport but if in peak times it was 1000 now it is 1. Even if it reaches 100 that would do a sea of good for the games. Hopefully over time the game will see better management by USACA and game improves

Canada

Cricket was declared as national game by the first prime minister of Canada. As already mentioned Canada was the first nation to play an international match of cricket. However the game in Canada was tied to rivalry with USA. As the game declined in USA, the same happened in Canada too. Also weather also played some part in the decline of the game.
Like USA, the game has seen a resurgence. In fact after 1979 Canada qualified for the world cup in 2003, then 2007 and 2011. Also the whole team in now on contracts showing the game is coming back. However there is still long way to go.


Malaysia

Before independence the games dominated all the newspaper. At once time Malaya had defeated the visiting Australians. In the limited sports culture in the country the game had good enough mind share. Malaysia was admitted to ICC as an associate after 1965 when ICC changed from Imperial to International.
By that time the game had lost a lot and never recovered to old levels. There were other causes for game not becoming popular. Whenever cricket was taken to any country it was played by british only. Over time the Elite of that country also started playing the games. In England, Aus, NZ, Zim or SA it is still the European that played the game. In India and Indian sub continent we had Kings, Nawabs, Raja, Zamindar etc who were the Indian Elite. They played along with the British and after they left continued to play. Hence the culture of the game continued and soon masses picked the game in all the 4 Test Nations of Indian Sub Continent.
In Malaysia there was no such elite and hence when the Britishers left suddenly no one was there to continue the tradition and we had an Broken Arrow.
With cricket again getting globalized and T20 the new format to expand the game, the game like most part of the world is seeing some resurgance. The MCA has also a vision to get Malaysia ODI status by 2020 and recent performances of Malaysia have been encouraging. They came 3rd in ACC trophy narrowly loosing to both the Finalists by single digits. Also the junior program has been rekindled. FInally MCA has got 4 sponsorships. Lets hope they regain the interest of Olden times

Fiji

Cricket was once a very popular game in the Island Nations. The Fiji team used to regularly play against the various teams from New Zealand and it was a event always in news. Infact the Indian and West Indian teams had played against the Fiji teams in Fiji on route to play Australia. However been a small nation and having smaller population meant that the level of cricket team would have been on lower side as compared to the test nations. This factor over time lead to less teams touring or inviting Fiji. Meanwhile Rugby started to gain in Fiji and Fiji had a good international standing in the same. Cricket's loss was Rugby's gain in Fiji.
Also the game of cricket was surprisingly played the indigenous community while the Indians preferred Soccer. Over time the locals realized they have built more suitable for Rugby and much easier for them to perform and while the Indian community continued with Soccer itself.
Over time the game of cricket has picked up very well in Pacific with PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga and Cook Islands improving every year while Fiji has seen a downfall. They have now lost the spot of number 4 (Behind Aus, NZ and PNG) to number with Vanuatu replacing them. Lets see if the game of cricket which has a resurgance in Pacific also has one in Fiji too.



Burma

Surprised to hear this name. Do people know that the Burma team had defeated the Ceylon team once in 1927 IIRC. Though both teams were made of Britishers but so was the case in every country at that time. The game was started and played by Britishers and then taken over by the higher class of local and then eventually going to the locals.
But in Burma the elite of locals were Indians. Indians formed a majority in capital Rangoon. The local Burmese really resented them. The Indians had taken the game, however over time the political situation changed. First the Japanese captured Burma in 1941. They started to discriminate against the Indians. The Indians started to leave. Then when British drove out the Japanese then it was almost certain that they will grant independence to Burma.
The Burma independence was not like the one in South Asia where the subsequent government maintained good relations. The British and Indians both were hated hence cricket also became a victim. Burma chose not to join the Commonwealth and hence ICC got out of question. Burma then further went into isolation and socialism and game of cricket, its clubs all started to lose out. Hence over time the game of cricket was killed
If Burma somehow had managed to go on the lines of South East Asia then surely the large impact of Indian Diaspora and its neighbours India and Bangladesh would have made sure that the game of cricket is alive and kicking and Burma would have been a different cricket power
Over time with globalization and Burmese who have studies abroad and in India, the game of Cricket has started to come back. A movie on lines of famous Indian movie "Lagaan" name "Bo Ba" was also made and was hugely popular. Presently probably Burma is the weakest of all cricket teams but cricket surely is making a comeback. Lets hope over time they come out as a strong contendor.

Some more nations where Cricket got a head start but could not capitalize were
1. Argentina
2. Netherlands
3. Denmark
4. Italy

If the game of cricket would have been alive and kicking in these nations then globally the scene could have been different. The hard work ICC has to do now is because 80 years was lost as cricket was kept in a cocoon. To cover these 80 years would take at least 20 to 30 more years to make cricket a truly global sport. Lets hope it happens in the best and most sustainable way.